Federal Analysis
US Cities Face Infrastructure Challenges from Depopulation
March 21, 2026
A recent study published in Nature Cities forecasts that nearly half of U.S. cities will experience significant population decline by 2100, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest regions. This demographic shift will create unprecedented challenges for urban infrastructure, public services, and planning models that have traditionally assumed growth. Procurement professionals and contractors working with state and municipal governments should anticipate evolving requirements focused on maintaining, downsizing, or repurposing infrastructure rather than expanding it. This shift will impact transportation, utilities, public safety, and facility management contracts, especially in cities like Cleveland, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Louisville, and Syracuse.
- Agencies in depopulating regions may prioritize contracts for infrastructure optimization, maintenance, and adaptive reuse rather than new construction
- Transportation providers and airport operators could face operational reductions or closures, affecting contract opportunities and service demands
- Vendors should evaluate how shrinking urban populations influence demand for services and adjust proposals to emphasize cost efficiency and sustainability
- Procurement strategies will need to incorporate long-term demographic trends to align investments with shrinking service areas and changing community needs
We found that, by 2100, close to half of the nearly 30,000 cities in the United States will face some sort of population decline, representing 12-23 percent of the population of these 30,000 cities and 27-44 percent of the populated area. The implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented challenges.
— Authors of the Nature Cities study
Itβs not hyperbole to suggest that we may have to quite literally shut down airports, particularly smaller ones, if call-out rates go up.
— Adam Stahl, Acting Deputy Administrator, TSA
This is a pox on everybodyβs house.
— John Thune, Senate Majority Leader
Agencies
Transportation Security Administration, Department of Homeland Security, Illinois Department of Transportation, University of Illinois Chicago, House Committee on Homeland Security
Vendors
United Airlines