# DoD Addresses Risks in Military Prediction Markets

Recent discussions involving the Department of Defense (DoD) and regulatory bodies have highlighted significant ethical and security concerns related to military-focused prediction markets operated by platforms such as Polymarket, Kalshi, and Limitless. Experts from the Project on Government Oversight, including Virginia Burger and Janice Luong, emphasize that individuals with access to non-public military information could exploit these markets to profit or potentially influence military operations, raising insider trading and national security risks. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and DoD are urged to implement stronger regulatory enforcement and internal policies to mitigate these risks and protect sensitive information.

- **Why this matters:** Procurement professionals should be aware of emerging regulatory scrutiny around prediction market platforms that intersect with military information, as this may impact contracting requirements and compliance obligations.
- The DoD may introduce stricter internal controls and oversight mechanisms for contractors and vendors involved in data handling or forecasting tools related to military operations.
- Companies providing prediction market or forecasting services should evaluate their compliance frameworks in anticipation of potential categorical bans or enhanced enforcement by the CFTC.
- This development signals increased attention to information security and ethical considerations in procurement involving financial incentive-based forecasting tools within defense contexts.

**Jurisdictions:** federal
**Industries:** Defense & Military
**Topics:** Regulatory Compliance
**Published:** September 18, 2026

### Government Entities
- Department of Defense (DoD)
- Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

### Vendors
- Polymarket (prediction market platform)
- Kalshi (prediction market platform)
- Limitless (prediction market platform)

### Key Quotes
> Platforms banning individual users are no longer enough. We think that congress must ban and the CFTC should be better about enforcing broader categorical bans.
> — Janice Luong, Policy Analyst

> Not only could they use that information that they've gained to make a bet on a future event, they may actually shape future events.
> — Virginia Burger, Senior Defense Policy Analyst

### Sources
- [
        When military information and financial incentives meet, a forecasting tool can become something else entirely | Federal News Network](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/podcast/federal-drive-with-terry-gerton-podcast/when-military-information-and-financial-incentives-meet-a-forecasting-tool-can-become-something-else-entirely) - federalnewsnetwork.com
- [
        When military information and financial incentives meet, a forecasting tool can become something else entirely | Federal News Network](https://federalnewsnetwork.com/the-federal-drive-with-terry-gerton/2026/09/when-military-information-and-financial-incentives-meet-a-forecasting-tool-can-become-something-else-entirely) - federalnewsnetwork.com