National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases 1R01AI196117-01

Advancing Analytical Tools to Quantify and Mitigate the Risk for Transitioning from Episodic to Endemic Transmission for Emerging Infections

The award funds the development of computational tools to assess and mitigate the risk of diseases transitioning from episodic to endemic transmission, focusing on emerging infections like H5N1 influenza, measles, and MRSA. It supports modeling, simulation, and software development to enhance public health response and pandemic preparedness.

Description

This project will develop and apply computational tools for assessing the risk that diseases with episodic transmission become established in the general population. It aims to improve understanding of transmission patterns, especially for emerging zoonoses, re-emerging vaccine-preventable diseases, and healthcare-associated infections. The work involves combining statistical inference with simulation approaches, extending methods for inference using branching process models, and constructing synthetic populations for stress-testing inference methods and evaluating control strategies. The project will focus on quantifying transmissibility of H5N1 influenza, the probability of large measles outbreaks, and control strategies for virulent MRSA strains. The goal is to produce user-friendly software and share synthetic population data to aid public health agencies.

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